26 10 / 2011
Cain takes the lead in GOP race poll
Businessman Herman Cain has pulled ahead of Mitt Romney and now leads the field of 2012 Republican candidates, according to a new New York Times/ CBS News poll.
Cain has 25 percent support among Republican primary voters, compared with 21 percent support for the former Massachusetts governor.
The two candidates were tied at 17 percent in the previous NYT/CBS poll released on Oct. 3.
The new poll shows Cainâs support among Tea Party conservatives climbed to 32 percent in mid-October â up from 18 percent just a few weeks earlier.
Cainâs rise to the top of the polls is powered by a non-traditional campaign (hereâs the âsmokingâ Cain ad everyoneâs talking about). But heâs going to have to do more than that to do well in the early nominating contests in January, Reutersâ Patricia Zengerle reports.
Rick Perry, who formally announced his 20 percent flat tax plan on Tuesday, has dropped to fifth place among the eight declared Republican White House hopefuls, according to the poll.
The Texas governor has taken a steep slide to 6 percent support â down from 23 percent (and front-runner status) in mid-September.
Here are the poll numbers for the remainder of the GOP field:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich â 10 percent;
Texas Representative Ron Paul â 8 percent;
Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann â 2 percent
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum â 1 percent
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman â 1 percent
Fourteen percent of those surveyed said they were undecided or did not know who they would pick to be the GOP presidential nominee.
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Photo Credits: Sun/Steve Marcus (Cain at Las Vegas conference); . Frank (Magazine cover signed by Cain at at Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines)
20 10 / 2011
UPDATE 2-EU reaches deal on naked CDS ban law
* Law to take effect on new contracts from Nov. 1, 2012By Julien ToyerBRUSSELS, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The European Union agreed on
Tuesday to ban “naked” credit default swaps (CDS) on sovereign
debt in an attempt to curb what some policymakers see as hedge
fund bets on the euro zone crisis.The measure was deadlocked for months because of a split
between the European Parliament and EU states, which have joint
say.The countries that were against a CDS ban agreed to it
after the parliament said they could opt out if the curb was
damaging their government debt market.”It is a very ambitious accord which strengthens financial
stability and strengthens the single market for financial
services,” Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial services chief,
told a news conference to announce the deal.The law, which also includes conditions and reporting
requirements on shortselling shares, will take effect from Nov
1, 2012 on new contracts.The European Securities and Markets Authority, a pan-EU
supervisory body, will play a central role in determining
whether a market is being damaged to trigger an opt out.”The criteria for this opt-out will be European, will be
looked at on a European basis,” Pascal Cafin, the French Green
Party member who is sponsoring the law in the parliament, told
the news conference.A national supervisor that wants a national opt-out would
have to provide ESMA with its “objective reasons” and analysis,
and a decision would be reached within 24 hours.”ESMA won’t have any power to impose its decision but there
will be political pressure and there will be judicial pressure
if the framework is not respected,” Canfin said.Britain, the EU’s main CDS trading centre, has been opposed
to such bans but was out-voted.”I’m reassured that member states will have the ability to
opt out of the ban, if they see signals that sovereign debt
markets are distressed,” said Syed Kamall, a centre-right
member of the European Parliament who represents London.BORROWING COSTSPolicymakers accused hedge funds last year of using CDS
contracts to bet on a Greek default, a practice they said made
it more expensive for the EU to rescue Greece.This prompted French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel to call for the draft law.But a study for the European Parliament said a ban on naked
CDS would have “detrimental effects on liquidity and the price
discovery process of credit risk.”Hedge funds say the CDS market is too small to manipulate
the far-bigger sovereign debt market and that government bond
prices have tumbled in Greece and elsewhere in the euro zone
because of investor worries over the level of public debt.”We have previously expressed our concerns about the impact
of a ban on uncovered sovereign CDS,” said Andrew Baker, chief
executive of hedge fund lobby AIMA.”It could not only reduce liquidity and increase volatility
in debt markets, but also increase government borrowing costs
and reduce real economy investments in EU member states.”The measure aims to avoid a repeat of confusing unilateral
national curbs on short-selling in financial shares in 2008
after the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers.Italy, Spain, France, Belgium and Greece reintroduced
short-selling curbs this summer, while other EU states like
Britain refused to join in.Such curbs are disputed by exchanges and some academics,
and they failed this summer to stop a rout in French banking
shares as the euro zone crisis sent investors scurrying.ESMA would have powers to override national supervisors and
impose temporary pan-EU share short-selling bans in times of
market turmoil.The new law will also impose reporting requirements on
short positions in shares and sovereign debt.Shorting stocks would only be allowed if prior arrangements
have been made to borrow the stock to ensure prompt settlement
of trades or that there is reasonable certainty the stock will
be available.
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14 10 / 2011
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro rally on crisis hopes, U.S. data
* Brent settles above $114 on optimism over debt end game* Euro extends gains against dollar after U.S. retail data* Bonds succumb to rising equity markets, retail salesBy Herbert LashNEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Global stocks and the euro
rallied on Friday over growing optimism that Europe is on track
to resolve its festering sovereign debt crisis and after data
showed a surprising surge in U.S. retail sales.The benchmark S&P 500 posted back-to-back weekly gains for
the first time since early July while the euro headed for its
best week in nine months against the U.S. dollar and gold
marked its biggest weekly rise in six weeks.Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs began
two days of talks in Paris on Friday, which investors hope will
provide a basis for a draft plan in time for a European Union
summit on Oct. 23.”Right now we are trading on hopes of a decisive policy
response,” said Jens Nordvig, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura
Securities in New York.The euro rose 0.8 percent to $1.3881.While investors do not expect a comprehensive strategy to
Europe’s debt crisis to come out of the meeting, there was
growing optimism that the meeting would put Europe on track for
a solution. In addition, data that U.S. retail sales grew by
1.1 percent in September, the fastest pace in seven months,
boosted investor sentiment on the economy’s prospects.The data, coupled with earnings from Google late
Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations, led investors to
shrug off a rating downgrade on Spain by Standard & Poor’s and
an unexpected slump in U.S. consumer confidence in October.The sales data also was expected to help lift forecasts for
growth in gross domestic product even though a resolution to
Europe’s debt crisis was the real focus for investors.”The data hasn’t mattered for a couple of months. It
matters here and there, but most of what today is, is Europe,”
said John Canally, investment strategist for LPL Financial in
Boston.”Just getting the details of this plan out there and making
the details work is the most important thing,” Canally said.For the week, the Dow gained 4.9 percent, the S&P 500
jumped 6 percent and the Nasdaq shot up 7.6 percent.The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 166.36
points, or 1.45 percent, at 11,644.49. The Standard & Poor’s
500 Index gained 20.92 points, or 1.74 percent, at
1,224.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 47.61
points, or 1.82 percent, at 2,667.85.Google shares jumped 5.9 percent to $591.68 after the
Internet search company said growth at its mobile business and
a strong emerging market lifted its third quarter, allaying
worries that a slowing Europe was hurting business.In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top
regional shares closed up 0.95 percent at 975.52 points, while
MSCI’s all-country world equity index gained
1.4 percent.The increased appetite for risk also lifted the price of
crude oil more than 3 percent and pushed down the U.S. dollar
and government debt, usually beneficiaries of bearish news.”The outlook is good and getting better by the day. Risk is
back on,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.Crude prices were propelled by the hopes that European
leaders would soon agree on how to curtail the euro zone debt
crisis.Early hints that China may loosen credit as inflation cools
also boosted gains while investors mostly ignored a preliminary
reading of U.S. consumer sentiment that sagged to 57.5 from
59.4 in September, a Thomson Michigan
survey showed.November Brent crude settled up $3.57 at $114.68 a
barrel on the day of its expiry. Brent crude for December
delivery rose $3.26 to $112.46 a barrel.U.S. crude settled up $2.57 at $86.80 a barrel.U.S. Treasury debt prices fell, with 30-year yields posting
their largest weekly gain in a year after the retail sales data
cut the safe-haven allure of U.S. government debt.Benchmark 10-year note yields, meanwhile, rose for a third
straight week, their best three-week advance since late
December.The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was
down 20/32 in price to yield 2.25 percent.Spot gold prices rose $12.89 to $1,679.00 an ounce.U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up
$14.50 at $1,683 an ounce.
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